Data is coming in just about as volatile as tariff policy these days. The Dallas Federal Reserve monthly survey of manufacturing activity dipped last month, but it rebounded in one of the sharpest recovery periods in nearly four years. It jumped 20 points to 21.3.

But here is one area of concern: businesses are worried about the role of tariffs on their input costs. We are all tired of tariff talk, but we may have to still worry that the pressure is still coming. Many of the survey respondents were saying in the July data that they were just now starting to see their suppliers passing on price increases. The good news is that domestic new orders are picking up and were building momentum in July. That may fly in the face of global manufacturing reports in which it looks like new order activity could be slower. Perhaps this is some of the shifts in sourcing to US suppliers. The bottom line is that activity was a little better than expected, inflation fears are still in place, and owners are still looking for stability before they make big investment or purchase decisions – even with trade deals rolling in.

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