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Inventory Stockouts or Discount and Markdown Risks?

September 17, 2025 — I get a lot of questions about my views on inventory. For context, we can point to many business cycles over the past 30 years and we can find correlations between inventory-to-sales-ratios and boom/bust cycles across transportation and...

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Conference Board’s LEI Flattens in July, Remains Low

August 25, 2025 — The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index report for July came in 0.1% lower month-over-month at 98.7. It was 2.7% lower over the last six months (which was faster than the 1% contraction seen in 2024). Keep in mind,...

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A Chart that Says 1,000 Words

August 21, 2025 — Although not many of us give it much thought on a daily basis, but the US farmer is still under tremendous pressure and has been since the pandemic and the subsequent surge in input prices. Farm Bureau released...

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