High-level analytical models from Armada and MN&A show that the outlook for domestic computer and electronic manufacturing over the next 18 months is facing a tough period this fall. The latest forecast released in the Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) shows machinery manufacturing slipping 1.7% in Q3 and .06% in Q4 (worse than seasonality).

Computers and Electronics Manufacturing Outlook

Our models are picking up chip shortages and possibly the return-to-work periods that accelerate after back-to-school, but after a period of deceleration, there is some flattening of the curve. As the models digest new information, these curves can change over time. However, our April model hit within a .009% of error. It was the most accurate of the 8 models that we publish each month in the ASIS.

The data models used in creating this forecast use 18-20 different economic variables and the models were trained over the past 20 years of data. The changes that the models are picking up in the last quarter of 2021 are interesting and are all data-driven.

The next update of the ASIS models will be released in the last week of June.

Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS)

The Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) is a continuous, monthly updated forecast covering 8 sectors in the durable manufacturing sector. It includes 18-month continuous forecasts for automotive, aerospace, computers and electronics, electrical equipment and appliances, fabricated metal products, machinery, and primary metals. It also covers supply chain issues, helping executives see well into the future so that they can make operational adjustments well in advance of cyclical changes in the marketplace. Manufacturers, financial analysts, supply chain managers, sales executives, and a wide variety of occupations across many industries subscribe to the ASIS.

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