Data is coming in just about as volatile as tariff policy these days. The Dallas Federal Reserve monthly survey of manufacturing activity dipped last month, but it rebounded in one of the sharpest recovery periods in nearly four years. It jumped 20 points to 21.3. …

The Watch report is updated monthly, and the latest information that we have available shows some interesting differences between national forecasts on economic growth for 2024 and what the models are showing us. …

The Watch is a report that includes a set of predictive models covering more than 70% of US GDP. The capstone model is one that covers broad-based manufacturing overall, including both durable and nondurable manufacturing. Thus far, this model has performed well, coming in with 98.1% accuracy 3 months in advance and 98.6% accurate 6 months out. …