To be honest there are more reasons to worry about an inflation surge than there are reasons to dismiss the threat but it is important to note that it has been over twenty years since there has been any real inflation risk and there are still important factors that reduce the threat. …

High-level analytical models from Armada and MN&A show that the outlook for manufacturing over the next 18 months is likely to stay ahead of its 20-year average growth trend. The latest forecast released in the Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) shows industrial production for manufacturing growth of 5.22% in 2021. This comes after a 2.6% contraction in 2020.

The outlook shows a sharp recovery period lasting through September of this year before easing and flattening out through August of next year (note the ASIS chart showing the forecast). …

Suddenly inflation is all that anybody in the financial and business community can seem to talk about. After close to twenty years of almost no inflation threat there now seems to be a serious concern. The fact is that core rates remain well below the target that has been set by the Federal Reserve and even further below the levels the Fed discussed at the central bank get-together in August. The threat is still a future concern. …