The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation was released, and we saw it inch up. But once again, diving into the data to try and understand where tariff pressures were showing up and where they were still docile, revealed quite a bit.
For starters, I still love the Trimmed Mean PCE (average inflation) reading from the Dallas Fed. It strips off the highs and lows and averages the middle. This month for instance, eggs were down 60% and household linens were up 90%. The average inflation figure allows us to strip out the highs and lows (because many of those could be simply data anomalies on a specific month) and get to “real” street level inflation. It also incorporates real world inflation that comes through food and energy, if that is applicable in a common month unlike core inflation readings that strip those out. …
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